4th Quarter 2019: Toronto Real Estate Market Update
Hey guys, Bradley tuning in and today I’m going to discuss the three things that you must know going into the fourth quarter here in the Toronto real estate market. They are the biggies. We do topics on a weekly basis to share with you guys some of the biggest movements that are happening, some of the biggest trends, but today I want to share my favorite two that we’ve seen, we’ve been tracking, and also I want to share with you an upcoming trend, what I would consider a prediction following the election. I’m going to share that with you by the end of this video, but before I get started, my name is Bradley and I do video updates like this on an ongoing basis to keep you in the loop on what’s going on here in the Toronto real estate market. We have real estate brokers, we have clients alike, all following this channel to get to the latest and best tips. But of course when you publish this excellent content online, you get haters. And some people say, well, I don’t know for any of you who have followed my content. Don’t just get all angry at one post. Look back at some of the things I’ve said over the past and I think I can get pretty negative. But back to the condos, I the exact opposite. If you want to purchase a condo, my advice you would be to wait, of course, wait, because we’re going to see an influx of inventory. You guys are going to want to take full advantage of that if you don’t like that one. What about this one? The fear that I have for some of you is I want you to at least be aware of what the impacts are going to be for the renter. Okay? If you think it’s challenging now and you think the rents are increasing too much, it’s nothing. It’s going to go up more and you’re not, you’re just not gonna see it done. And last but not least, what if I were to tell you that the value you think your Toronto property has gone up in the last five years is only half that amount. But if you don’t want to take my word for it, check out this comment. My good friend Phil says, please keep the predictions limited to yourself. You really want the market to fail, don’t you What about my buddy Bob? He says, you got the brains of a okay Bob. Now you’re just being mean and what’s worse. You got three likes on that comment, break my heart. We are seeing inventory steady declining and the number of sales is inclining and we’ve been tracking this for a while. You can check out some of the comments that we’ve made. I want to share this video with you first. The gears started turning and why is it that we’re outperforming what most people are predicting for our 2019 market and I think that I’ve pinpointed it, I want to share with you right now as of the second quarter of 2019 we have seen the number of sales go through the roof. In fact, we are up 10.6% since last year and the number of sales, but that’s just one side of the equation, right on the other side of the equation and what people are kind of ignoring is inventory. We have seen the number of listings go down by 6% since last year. Now this is a direct split from what we saw happening when the market was coming down. Now we’re starting to see that the number of sales are going back up. The inventory is depreciating, which leaves us with this problem once again of balancing our supply and demand. That video was filmed in the beginning of August. Now that was very early on in this cycle. It was just starting to pick up on this trend and so I got a lot of hate. If you check out that video supply is massively down, we’ll also tag it. You’ll realize some of the backlash that I got, but I’ve been tracking this now for the last couple of months and here’s a video that I did last month. The number of listings coming on the market have been declining. The number of sales have been going up and hence months of inventory seems to be shrinking over the last year. Now it’s early on, which is why I like to catch these things. Of course they’re going to be disputed because maybe it’s not commonplace to discuss them yet. Now I have in many cases, put my name on the line on this one. Knowing it’s a prediction and just seeing it and asking the question. You can see me doing so right here. You’re going to see one of two things. Either I’m going to be successful and I’m going to have predicted this trend in the month of the inventory or I’m going to eat my words, but that brings us to today. Now we’re in October. What are we seeing? Is this trend continuing or is it slowing down? Now that the cooler months are ahead of us and I’ll tell you this, things are firing up. They continue to happen, things are accelerating. I am seeing chaos in some of my clients looking downtown Toronto. It is actually really bad. Um, and this trend is an ongoing movement. I want to share with you some of the statistics that we’re seeing just to get a picture of where we currently stand. Prices are higher than we expected from last year. They’re actually over 5%. We were anticipating between one to 3% but what is driving this very fast growth? Well, I would say that this trend is really what we have to blame. In fact, active listings are down year over year in September by 14% and the number of sales again are in double digits growth at 22% so we have this huge gap between supply and demand that we’ll continue to form with no end in sight. Which brings me to the next big items we need to be tracking as we enter the fourth quarter of 2019 before we move into this next trend, we have to keep this image in mind, the supply and demand challenges that we’ve been facing that’s causing this almost record breaking growth that we’re seeing over the last year. Even looking very similar to what we saw back in 2017 before the government put his hands and started doing all of these things to try and soften the market. So that brings me to number two. Did this in fact address the supply issue? And I would argue, no, we’re talking about immigration now. I’ve done videos. Immigration. I’ll tag a video. I recently did one and this idea that the GTA is experiencing crazy growth. In fact Toronto is the number one growing city in all of North America and the greater Toronto area is the second fastest growing metropolitan area in all of North America. So we have a huge influx of people coming and as they come and if you check out this video you’ll learn a little bit more. It’s creating additional demand which is fueling the housing market and also adding the demand on top of a supply that hasn’t been dealt with. Well. I think we got ourselves in a bit of a pickle. We’re Springs me to my favorite point number three this is the very first time that I’m going to be talking about this, so I’m going to warn you guys. Prediction alert now that the election is around the corner, keep in mind who is the leading party and see from this graph right here, it actually is the liberal government as of the time this video was filmed. The current polls are putting liberals at a 34% just the head of the concern is that 33% so why does this matter? Well, if the liberals are elected, I think we’re going to see one of the largest changes happen here in the GTA and that is that the new first time home buyer incentive program that was rolled out last month by the liberal government, they applied a limit of $505,000 the problem with that is that it didn’t address the local Toronto and Vancouver market. Some of the higher priced markets weren’t really included in that. The liberals have promised that if they’re elected, they’re going to change the value of that limit from 505,000 to 789,000 so this is the suggested change from the liberal government. But let’s keep in mind this still crisis we’re facing with supply and demand. Let me ask you, is that going to improve our supply or is that going to just further push demand? And I would argue the ladder. We might have ourselves a bit of a situation and for those of you that are going to find yourself in a home or an investment property that’s under that 789,000 if you’re not currently in the market and you’re looking for some kind of opportunity, this may very well be the place to look. So let me summarize my prediction for you. If the liberal government is elected in which the polls currently say that they will be, what will happen is the homes under 789,000 we’ll have additional demand added to them. Whether that’s from our immigration and from outskirts coming in or whether that’s from locals. It doesn’t matter. People will have for from the perspective of a first time home buyer a an added reason to go into this market place which will stimulate more demand. But of course nobody has fixed supply. So let me ask you guys a question now that you’re kind of aware of the major factors that are going on. Some of the big changes that are happening. You are noticing hopefully what I am, that demand seems to be where everybody’s fighting and nobody has addressed the elephant in the room, which is supply. We’ve been talking about this forever and so does all the media. This is just the issue. And so I would ask you guys down in the comments below, what is it that you would suggest we do to help the supply crisis that we face? I don’t want to see what was happening in 2017. Nobody really wants to see that. That’s just chaos. But at this rate, I’m anticipating it, but I really want to have a place where we can maybe come up with creative ideas. There are many people who watch this content, including some government officials and other people in the public that have very loud voices that can project that idea to the right people And so if we can create a community around us where we’re actually addressing this concern, I would love it to be done and, uh, and hopefully fix this challenge that we continue to face. In the meantime, make sure you slam that subscribe button. I’ll see you guys next time. Take care and keep it real.